Latest news with #Ministry of Trade and Industry
Yahoo
16 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Singapore raises 2025 growth outlook, warns of risks ahead
By Claire Jiao (Bloomberg) – Singapore raised its growth forecast for this year after a better-than-expected performance in the first half, mainly on the back of front-loading ahead of US tariffs and easing trade tensions. The government sees the economy expanding 1.5%-2.5% year-on-year, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in a statement on Tuesday, higher than the 0%-2% outlook since May. 'Singapore's economic outlook for the rest of the year remains clouded by uncertainty,' the ministry's permanent secretary Beh Swan Gin told reporters, adding that it's premature to speculate whether there will be a technical recession this year. The Singapore dollar is up 0.1% versus the greenback at 1.2865, as the local currency saw little reaction to the upwards revision of the growth forecast. Singapore's GDP expanded 4.4% in the second quarter. That compares with the government's 4.3% advance estimate and the median forecast of 4.4% in a Bloomberg survey of economists. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the economy grew 1.4% from the first three months of the year, in line with the advance estimate. That allowed the trade-reliant nation to side-step a technical recession in the second quarter with businesses accelerating shipments before the onset of US President Donald Trump's tariffs this month. The front-loading bolstered Singapore's manufacturing, exports and services sectors. Singapore in April downgraded its forecast for 2025 GDP growth by a full percentage point from the initial estimate of 1%-3%, in light of the potential impact of higher US tariffs. The economy's initial outperformance allowed the Monetary Authority of Singapore to stand pat at its July meeting, after easing in January and April. The central bank said its monetary policy remains appropriate and it's well placed to respond to risks. Attention will now turn to the economic outlook for the rest of the year. While Singapore faces just a 10% reciprocal tariff – lower than its peers in Southeast Asia – it still faces a sizeable risk should Trump jack up sectoral levies on key exports to the US like semiconductors or pharmaceuticals. Other countries may also reduce imports as their own sales to the US suffer. Singapore's economic growth is expected to cool in the second half of the year compared to the first half, the ministry said. The manufacturing sector will likely grow at a slower clip as US tariffs dampen demand in other markets, the ministry said. Wholesale trade could also be hit as front-loading wanes, while weaker appetite for shipping and air cargo could hit the transport and storage sectors. The ministry said it 'will continue to monitor developments in the global and domestic economies closely, and make adjustments to the forecast if necessary over the course of the year.' The MAS, which manages monetary policy by allowing the currency to move within a band, is scheduled to announce its next decision by Oct. 14. The Singapore dollar has risen more than 6% against the dollar this year, while the benchmark Straits Times Index has risen nearly 12%. (Updates with market moves, details from briefing) More stories like this are available on ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Yahoo
17 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Singapore raises 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5 to 2.5% with tariff worries less pronounced
In the most recent 2Q 2025, Singapore's GDP was up 4.4% y-o-y, extending the 4.1% growth in the previous quarter The government has raised its full year 2025 GDP growth range projection to between 1.5 and 2.5%, to take into account better-than-expected first half performance, where the impact of the trade war started by the US was not as bad as expected. "However, the economic outlook for the rest of the year remains clouded by uncertainty, with the risks tilted to the downside," warns the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). MTI's earlier forecast was for a range from 0 to 2%. In the most recent 2Q 2025, Singapore's GDP was up 4.4% y-o-y, extending the 4.1% growth in the previous quarter. On a q-on-q seasonally-adjusted basis, the Singapore economy expanded by 1.4%, a reversal from the 0.5% contraction in the first quarter. This brings Singapore's GDP growth for 1H 2025 to 4.3% y-o-y, with gains driven mainly wholesale trade, manufacturing, finance & insurance, and transportation & storage sectors. MTI observes that the performance of most advanced and regional economies has been more resilient than expected as the US' 90-day pause on its reciprocal tariffs postponed the potential negative economic impact, while front-loading activities during the tariff pause provided a temporary boost to production and exports. "There has also been a de-escalation in trade tensions, with the US striking trade deals with several trading partners, including the Eurozone, Japan, South Korea and several Southeast Asian economies, that led to a lowering of their reciprocal tariffs compared to that announced earlier," says MTI. Meanwhile, the US and China continue to be engaged in trade talks, with indications that the 90-day tariff truce between the two countries could be extended. As such, 2025 GDP growth of the key economies, including the US, Eurozone and China, is not expected to be as weak as earlier projected. Accordingly, MTI has updated its assessment of the overall external outlook for Singapore. However, MTI warns that the growth of Singapore's major trading partners in the second half of the year is expected to moderate from that in the first half, as the boost from front-loading activities dissipates and the US' reciprocal tariffs take effect. "Overall, the balance of risks in the global economy is skewed to the downside," says MTI. "Against this backdrop, Singapore's economic growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year compared to the first half because of slower growth in outward-oriented sectors," says MTI. See Also: Click here to stay updated with the Latest Business & Investment News in Singapore Trump extends China truce for 90 days, averting tariff hike Nvidia, AMD to pay US 15% of China AI chip sales in unusual move How Switzerland's tariff drama swung from hope to despair Read more stories about where the money flows, and analysis of the biggest market stories from Singapore and around the World Get in-depth insights from our expert contributors, and dive into financial and economic trends Follow the market issue situation with our daily updates Or want more Lifestyle and Passion stories? Click here
Bloomberg
18 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Singapore Raises 2025 Growth Outlook But Warns of Risks Ahead
Singapore raised its growth forecast for this year after a better-than-expected performance in the first half, mainly on the back of front-loading ahead of US tariffs, and easing trade tensions. The government forecast gross domestic product to grow 1.5%-2.5% year-on-year, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in a statement on Tuesday, higher than the 0%-2% forecast since May.
